Opinion: What Trump’s past statements reveal about the future of US-Ukraine relations

Ukraine and the rest of Europe anxiously followed the U.S. presidential election results on Nov. 6, which ultimately reported Donald Trump and J.D. Vance as the winners, with the Republican Party also securing majorities in the House and Senate. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky quickly called the president-elect to offer congratulations and express interest in strengthening ties.
But what does a Trump-Vance administration mean for Europe and Ukraine? Looking at past actions and campaign statements may provide insight.
During his 2016-2020 term, Trump’s stance toward NATO and Ukraine often raised eyebrows. He called NATO “obsolete” and argued that the U.S. should not be the world’s police force. Trump withdrew American soldiers from Europe and opposed expanding the U.S. military presence there. He declined to fully endorse NATO’s Article 5, which commits members to collective defense, and former aides reported that Trump even considered pulling out of the alliance.
Trump’s views on Ukraine also emerged during the 2016 election when he accused Ukraine of interfering in the U.S. election against him — a claim later disproven by the FBI. Then, in 2019, he withheld defense assistance to Ukraine and requested that Zelensky investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and his family. The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) later ruled that withholding aid passed by Congress was illegal. The House of Representatives impeached Trump, though the Senate ultimately acquitted him.
After losing the 2020 election, Trump vowed a political comeback and eventually secured the 2024 Republican nomination. During his campaign, Trump’s positions on NATO and Ukraine remained unchanged — and even hardened.
At a recent rally, Trump reiterated that NATO members must meet the 2% defense spending threshold, stating he would not protect allies who fail to do so. “You don’t pay your bills, you get no protection,” he said. Trump suggested he would let Russia “do whatever the hell they want” if a country falls short on payments.
Many former officials from the Trump-Pence administration believe Trump is likely to withdraw from NATO, jeopardizing European security.
Regarding Ukraine, Trump pledged to end the war in one day by forcing Ukrainian officials to negotiate with Russia and cede territory. He has argued that U.S. aid to Ukraine is excessive and has called for cuts. Now, with the election behind him, Trump is expected to push for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine that would likely reduce U.S. support. Trump has also said he would seek to delay Ukraine’s NATO membership bid.
Vance shares Trump’s critical views on NATO and Ukraine. He has argued that European countries should handle their own security issues without U.S. involvement. Vance, who has opposed every bill supporting Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, has said he “doesn’t really care” about Ukraine and that the U.S. should stop its aid. He also opposes Ukraine’s potential NATO membership, arguing it should remain neutral.
With Republicans in control of Congress, Trump and Vance will find support for their isolationist policies. House Speaker Mike Johnson, for example, has called on Europe to take more responsibility for its own security and suggested that NATO allies increase their defense spending. Johnson also backs Trump’s forced peace plan for Ukraine, stating he does “not have an appetite for further Ukraine funding” and expressing confidence that Trump can end the war by pushing for negotiations with Russia.
While most Senate Republicans support NATO and aid to Ukraine, their stance could clash with Trump, Vance, and Johnson’s agenda. These differences could lead to friction between the White House, House, and Senate.
The Trump-Vance administration is poised to reduce U.S. involvement in NATO and foreign conflicts. Trump, Vance, and Johnson argue that the U.S. has done enough for Ukraine and Europe. They intend to work with Russia on a peace agreement that may require Ukraine to adopt neutrality and forego NATO membership.
In other words, Europe and Ukraine may soon find themselves without U.S. support. Facing Russian aggression alone, European nations and Ukraine will have to strengthen their cooperation and resilience amid an increasingly uncertain future. Only time will reveal whether they will succeed.
Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent.